Indonesia’s rupiah is at a record low. Its stock market is the world’s worst performer in 2026. Credit default swaps now imply a rating downgrade. The Hormuz shock did not cause this. It revealed it.
The Shock Did Not Break Indonesia. The Decisions Made Before It Did
When oil hit USD 100, Southeast Asia’s CFOs were already managing three simultaneous capital pressures: a structural shift to all-cash M&A, accelerating portfolio disposals and an AI investment pipeline blocked not by money but by talent. The Hormuz shock didn’t create the squeeze. It exposed it.
Indonesian students take to streets protesting fuel subsidy cuts and government spending priorities, Thailand and Malaysia clash over seafood trade restrictions disrupting key export market, UK launches ASEAN health program funding 20 projects across region, Russia courts Southeast Asia ahead of Kazan summit, and Chinese brands consolidate dominance through localisation strategy across ASEAN markets.
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